Editor's Note:  French President Macron's remarks on China and the U.S. have prompted a huge debate in Europe about how to view China and EU-China ties. On Friday, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang held talks with his German counterpart, Baerbock, while the EU's foreign affairs chief, Borrell, had to postpone his China visit after testing positive for COVID-19. This edition of the CCCEU Weekly Update keeps you informed of China-EU dynamics. Enjoy your reading and have a nice weekend.

Weekly Updates·Focus

On April 11, after wrapping up a state visit to China, French President Emmanuel Macron paid a visit to the Netherlands and delivered a speech on European sovereignty at the Nexus Institute in The Hague.

He articulated his vision for the future of European sovereignty in his address, suggesting that it should be built on five pillars: competitiveness, industrial policy, protectionism, reciprocity, and cooperation.

Previously, on his visit to China, Macron stated in interviews with POLITICO and Echo that Europe can be a third superpower to the US and China and that strategic autonomy is essential to avoid European states becoming vassals. If tensions between these two giants develop, the EU will have neither the time nor the money to finance its strategic autonomy and will become embroiled in crises that are not its own.

For the US, he argued that Europe's reliance on the US for weapons and energy had increased and that the European defence industry needed to be strengthened. He also believed that Europe's reliance on the extraterritoriality of the US currency would be reduced.

Macron has long supported European strategic autonomy as a political position. In his September 2017 speech at the Sorbonne University, he emphasised European sovereignty as the central concept of Europe's global leadership.

The concept of European strategic autonomy can be traced back to the Gaullism of independent diplomacy that France pursued for more than a half century after World War II. Under the influence of Gaullism, France resisted becoming a vassal state of the US and for a long time remained outside NATO, which was dominated by the US.

It ended the Cold War blockade and established diplomatic ties with the People's Republic of China, sought reconciliation with Germany, and energetically encouraged the process of European integration. Gaullism began to diminish once France rejoined NATO in 2009. During the Trump administration, the notion of "America First" accelerated the divergence between the US and Europe, and the concept of European strategic autonomy was revalued.

Although the Biden administration has worked to improve trans-Atlantic relations, the vulnerability of the global supply chain exposed by the COVID-19 epidemic, as well as the geopolitical risks posed by the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has prompted the EU to focus on how to become more independent and powerful in the post-epidemic era - to transform and consolidate European industries and manufacturing industries in the digital and green transformation.

Strategic autonomy has become a buzzword in the EU's policies, speeches, and documents in recent years. It has become more frequent in the trade arena, such as foreign investment screening, digital security, supply chain resilience, and other fields, and has even turned into an argument for the EU's new trade protectionism.

On the other hand, it is difficult not to observe that before his visit to China, von der Leyen used the phrase "de-risking" rather than "strategic autonomy."

Macron straightforwardly pointed out the EU's dependence on the US for military, energy, industry, and currency and focused on strengthening the concept of European sovereignty.

Macron gained the support of multiple politicians from the EU and member states. "There has been a leap forward on strategic autonomy compared to several years ago,"President of the European Council Michel echoed. "On the issue of the relationship with the United States, it's clear that there can be nuances and sensitivities around the table of the European Council. Some European leaders wouldn't say things the same way that Emmanuel Macron did ... I think quite a few really think like Emmanuel Macron."

"There is indeed a great attachment that remains present — and Emmanuel Macron has said nothing else — for this alliance with the United States. But if this alliance with the United States would suppose that we blindly, systematically follow the position of the United States on all issues, no," Michel was quoted as saying.

Macron's position has undoubtedly drawn criticism. Marcin Przydacz, a senior adviser to Poland's President Andrzej Duda, stated emphatically that Europe requires "more America," adding that "the United States is more of a guarantee of safety in Europe than France."

Two other top EU diplomats also accused Macron of harming Europe with his neutral statement. It is clear that, due to disparities in historical backgrounds and interests among EU member states, as well as differences in political, economic, and military ties with the US, European sovereignty based on strategic autonomy would confront considerable difficulties in its growth.

During Macron and von der Leyen's visit to China, China emphasised its unwavering support for European integration and strategic autonomy. Regarding Macron's position, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Wang Wenbin stated on Wednesday that adhering to strategic autonomy will earn more respect and friends, whereas using coercion and pressure will only result in greater resistance and opposition.

Weekly Updates·Hot Topics

IMF expects China's economy to grow 5.2% this year

According to Xinhua News Agency, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest "World Economic Outlook Report" on the 11th, predicting that China's economic growth rate will be 5.2% in 2023, which will have a positive boost to the global economy.

The report predicts that the global economy will grow by 2.8% in 2023, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous forecast. Among them, the economies of emerging markets and developing economies will grow by 3.9% this year and 4.2% in 2024; the economies of developed economies will grow by 1.3% this year and 1.4% in 2024.

China wishes High Representative Borrell a speedy recovery

Regarding EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell's postponement of his visit to China due to a positive test for Covid-19,Wang Wenbin,the spokesperson of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, responded to relevant questions at the regular press conference on the 13th and said that EU has notified China of this decision and China understands this.

Wang Wenbin said that China expresses condolences to High Representative Borrell, wishes him a speedy recovery, and welcomes him to visit China at a mutually convenient time.

On the same day, Borrell published a speech on the EU External Action Service website that was supposed to be released in Beijing on the 14th, focusing on his views on China and China-EU relations. The article focused on the rise of China and the results of poverty reduction, as well as the widening trade deficit between China and Europe.

Borrell said there is a need to reduce trade "imbalances". He also said that there is a lot of room for cooperation between China and Europe, including biodiversity, dealing with climate change and finding a solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

ECB is reaching consensus on a 25bp rate hike in May

According to Reuters news on the 13th, although negotiations are still ongoing, European Central Bank (ECB) policy makers are reaching a consensus on raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May. Uncertainty remains high after financial sector volatility last month and past rate hikes that have yet to have an impact on the economy, with past moves still in play, call for a reduction in rate hikes. Now that the peak in interest rates has been seen, it is safer to walk this "last mile" in smaller steps, they added.

The outlook for rate hikes is still subject to change for now - notably April's inflation data and the ECB's quarterly bank lending survey, which are not due until two days before its May 4 meeting. The ECB has raised interest rates by at least 50 basis points at each of its six consecutive meetings to tackle stubbornly high inflation, which is the fastest pace on record.

China, Germany hold strategic dialogue on diplomacy and security

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock co-chaired the 6th round of China-Germany Strategic Dialogue on Diplomacy and Security in Beijing on Friday, according to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin.

Before the dialogue, Qin, who is also a state councilor, went to Tianjin and visited a German business there together with Ms. Baerbock and then took a high-speed train to Beijing, Wang told a regular press conference on Friday.

Weekly Updates·what are experts talking about？

Ding Yifan: France's public support for "One Belt, One Road" is a major success of Chinese diplomacy

From: Phoenix

The article believes that most of those who publicly supported China's "One Belt, One Road" were developing countries in Europe. France's support may drive more Western European countries to support the "Belt and Road" in the future. The article says that the series of remarks made by President Macron on China's Taiwan issue and Europe's strategic autonomy should not be over-interpreted. Although Macron stated that Europe cannot become a follower of the United States, he will not support China's reunification. China's reunification and rise are seen by Europe as a crisis and challenge.

The article says that China and Europe have never been "decoupled". Previously, China-EU relations were in a situation of "hot economy and cold politics". However, with the recent frequent visits by European politicians to China, China-EU political relations are recovering, and economic relations will not be cooled by the "de-risking" strategy of President von der Leyen of the European Commission in the future, because China-EU economic cooperation is in the interests of Europe.

Europe Is Disastrously Split on China

From Foreign Policy

By Thorsten Benner

The article believes that the only winner of the recent series of visits by European politicians to China is China, and believes that China has not only failed to make concessions on important European interests, but has also brought Europe's China policy into chaos. In terms of attitudes towards China, a series of "pro-China" words and deeds by Sanchez and Macron contradict European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

The article believes that the so-called "European sovereignty" that Macron pursues is "purely anti-American." Macron has further discredited the practise of "European sovereignty" in the eyes of many, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, and a divided Europe will only benefit Europe's enemies. It is very important for Europe to turn to damage control mode at this time.

At the end of the article, the author concludes that after Macron's visit to China, it has become more difficult to formulate a coherent EU "de-risking" policy towards China—although this is the only way for Europe to maintain its "sovereignty". The author also believes that German Foreign Minister Baerbock should find ways to publicly support the "de-risking" agenda, G7 and EU positions on Taiwan during his trip to Beijing.